CONFESS Program

Recent Vatican interest in the effect upon laymen of the shortage of Professional Priests ( PP) and the decreased seminary enrollment of Potential Priests ( P’P) has led to the development of Computerized Operations [Non-retrievable] for Expediting Sinner Services [ CONFESS]. The program provides a viable alternative to traditional confessional procedures and techniques by listing penitential requirements (by sin) on a private printout to penitents, such that the printed penances are appropriate to the sin(s) committed. Consequently, the frequent problem whereby the penitent, often under extreme emotional duress, forgets either the sin or the subsequent penance is eliminated.

In addition, the program provides a probability estimate of the consequences of not completing the penances associated with various categories of sin; e.g., the number of years in purgatory. Full freedom of choice is thereby completely within the purview of the penitent/ user ( PU) rather than the confessor. The program requires no PP involvement or activity, thereby freeing PPs to engage in more pressing or productive activities. It is hoped that by providing PPs with more time for critical theological activities, P’Ps will consider the priesthood a more socially conscious and relevant profession, causing an increase of P’P enrollment in accredited seminaries.

Program Descriptor:

CONFESS is available in three natural interactive languages: COURSEWRITER III, BASIC and TUTOR, and can be programmed for most other natural languages such as interactive FORTRAN. The program has been developed utilizing online computer terminals linked to an IBM 360/F30 for data input, but could be modified to operate in batch mode on almost any third-generation configuration, including micros, given the willingness to sacrifice instantaneous feedback.

The computing procedures for CONFESS are as follows: The ‘present sins input’ ( PSI) yields the ‘graduated penitential accrual’ ( GPA) as a function of ‘present sins’ ( PS plus ‘frequency of confession visits’ ( FCV) times ‘completed penances’ ( CP) divided by ‘recurrent/recidivist sins (1)’ ( RS). Hence, GPA is a function not only of the immediate sins reported but also a partial function of the reciprocal relationship of recurrent/recidivist sins to completed penances by frequency of confession visits. The relative penance is then increased by the inclusion of recurrent/recidivist sins. Mathematically, this can be represented as follows:

PSI->GPA=F{PS+FCV/(CP/RS)}

Ergo, each present sin ( PS) yields a specific GPA that is stored until all GPAs have been computed. At that time, punishment and its maximum likelihood of re-occurrence (2) should the GPA not be completed, are retrieved from core storage and printed out for the individuated GPA prescription.

Validity And Reliability:

A study to establish the validity of the CONFESS program was conducted. The procedure included an actuarial sample of 243 actual confessions, stratified across low, medium and high socio- economic income brackets with non-significant differences in proportions of black, white and Spanish-speaking PUs. Fourteen priests were used in the study from seven different cities.

The actual sins confessed and penances prescribed in the confessional booths were tape recorded *without* the knowledge of either penitent or confessor, to insure absolute authenticity and integrity of the confessor/penitent relationship (3). The tapes were further analyzed and penances were rated on a scale of 1-10 where 10 = maximum severity (4). Then ratings were made by the Seven Cardinal Evaluators identified by Stake (AERA, 1972). The interrater reliability was established as .949.

The 243 sin sets taken from the taped confessions were then entered into the CONFESS program via remote terminal. A Pearson Product Moment Correlation was computed between the actual PP penance prescriptions and the CONFESS GPAs. A correlation of .971 was interpreted to provide sufficient concurrent validity for CONFESS confidence.

A further series of small studies to determine the reliability of the CONFESS program were conducted as follows:

1. External Latency Reliability. The mean wait for confessional booths with PPs (where there were 2 booths/church) was 7.12 minutes while, in comparison, the average wait for a CONFESS box (1 installation per church) was only 1.72 minutes. This difference in outside wait latency is significant at the p<.01 level.
2. Internal Latency Reliability. This study examined the latency form the last sin confessed until the PP or CONFESS program provided the penance or GPA, respectively. Again, the CONFESS latency was significantly shorter than the PP latency. The means were 1.31 minutes (plus an average of 9.3 headshakes) for PPs, and 6.1 seconds for CONFESS.
3. Computer Downtime Vs. PP Rest Breaks. In this study the CONFESS program was monitored for computer breakdowns and don’t- understand- not- compute- either (DUNCE) loops. During the 243 CONFESS program runs (a total of 517 minutes) no breakdowns were reported and only one (1) DUNCE loop. The DUNCE loop was in the case of one PU who was previously excommunicated from the Church; however, the CONFESS program has been modified and will now process excommunicated PUs as well as non-excommunicated PUs. PPs, on the other hand, showed an average of 1 rest break for a mean of 12.3 minutes every hour and one-half.Early in the project’s history it was suggested that terminals could easily be installed in drive-up booths similar to bank ATM machines, and that the facility could be titled TOOT ‘N TELL. For some reason, the idea was shelved and has not yet been given serious consideration.
4. Consistency Of PP Penance Vs. GPA. In this study, the 243 confession tapes were re-heard by the same 14 PPs. Each PP re-heard the same penitents, albeit on tape and without hearing the end of the tape which contained the penance he gave. In 241 cases, the PPs did *NOT* give the same penance, and in fact, in 191 cases, the penance severity changed at least one degree (e.g., from a severity rating of 7 to a severity rating of 8). Although no speculation for causality is made here, it is important to compare the CONFESS consistency. In all 243 cases, the GPA was identical.

The results of these four studies are sufficient to provide confidence in CONFESS program reliability.

Procedures & Output:

Since CONFESS is a natural-language program, the procedures for CONFESS are extremely simple:

1. Enter the CONFESS box (5), kneel on the cushioned kneeler in front of the console. Type in your personal PU identification code.
2. The console will type your name and the time elapsed since your last CONFESS session (CONFESSION). Following the request for present sins, type in all the sins (PS) since your last confession.
3. Press the [enter] button and silently repeat the ACT of Contrition. (Given the average latency for GPA (6.1 seconds) this seems to be reduced in most cases to ‘I’m sorry.’
4. Remove the personalized CONFESS printout.

 

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                              SAMPLE PRINTOUT

===========================================================================
CONFESS                        GPA PRINTOUT                JOHN DOE, Age 29
===========================================================================
TIME SINCE LAST CONFESSION = 3 WEEKS                            RECIDIVIST
PRESENT SINS           TYPE       GPA               PUNISHMENT  PROBABILITY
===========================================================================
1) ENVIES BOSS         VENIAL     10 OUR FATHERS    1 YR.PURGATORY      .98
                                  PRACTICE SMILING
                                  AT BOSS
2) SWEAR AT WIFE       VENIAL     10 HAIL MARYS     1.73 YRS PURG.      .84
                                  PRACTICE SMILING
                                  AT WIFE
3) COVET NEIGHBOR'S    MORTAL    1 ROSARY/DAY/WK    ETERNAL DAMNATION   .91
   WIFE

ONLY THREE SINS THIS TIME, *MR. DOE*! YOU'RE IMPROVING.  YOU HAD *14* LAST
CONFESSION. NICE GOING.   KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK. LET'S SEE IF YOU CAN MAKE
OUT A LITTLE BETTER WITH NUMBER *3* IN THE FUTURE.  

 

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1. Notice that up-to-date history records are necessary to compare previous sin records to present sin input in order to compute an accurate GPA. To insure confidentiality between confessor and penitent, a private code number is given to each penitent, and no master record is kept to identify the PU. This is the NON-RETRIEVABLE aspect of the CONFESS program. Only by preceding the CONFESS session with his private code can the PU receive a GPA. Social Security numbers are suggested as possible PU identification numbers.
2. This probability estimate is taken from ROME’S ACTUAL TRANSGRESSION SENTENCES ( RATS), Edited by Pope II. Randomness Press, Inc., Rome, 12 A.D.
3. It should be noted that ‘Ex Post Facto’ permission to use the tape recordings was obtained from each confessor and penitent prior to use of the data. Hence, the sample of 243 represents a sub-sample of non- refusals from confessors and penitents. The original sample was 12,409,867.
4. It may be of interest to the reader that 4 Our Fathers and 4 Hail Marys received a unanimous severity rating of 1 while 2 Rosaries per day plus mass each day for 2 months was rated unanimously at 10.
5. The CONFESS box is patterned after the Skinner experimental box/chamber described in ‘Schedules of Reinforcement’ by C.B. Ferster and B.F. Skinner, Appleton-Century Crofts, Inc., NY, 1957, 14-19. Although the present study does not address itself to the question of recurring sins and reinforcement/punishment contingencies, this question is currently under investigation by the author.

REFERENCESFERSTER, C.B. and SKINNER, B.F. ‘Schedules of Reinforcement.’ Appleton- Century Crofts, Inc., NY, 1957, 14-19.

‘Rome’s Actual Transgressions (RATS)’, Ed. Pope II. Randomness Press, Inc., Rome, 12 A.D.

STAKE, ROBERT. ‘The Seven Cardinal Evaluators.’ A paper presented at the National American Educational Research Association, in Chicago, 1972.

[I'm told that this has appeared in the "Journal of Irreproducible Results"]

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